I happened across a chilling analysis of trump’s threats to build an empire! https://substack.com/home/post/p-156454364

donald trump has been talking a lot about re-taking the Panama Canal, buying Greenland (while not ruling out an invasion), and making Canada the 51^st State. He looks as though he will make good on his promise to take military action in Mexico after he signed an executive order designating certain cartels as terrorist organisations. Many outlets and pundits have declared that these talking points are either bluster, impossible, or mere diversions. My assessment is that they are not.

trump doesn’t really joke; he says outlandish things to see what sort of reaction he gets. In this case, with all of these proposals, Republicans responded with support and the American public barely noticed because “that’s just trump being trump.” In truth, trump rarely drops an idea, even a bad one. He was intent on buying Greenland during his first term and never let the idea go. Thus, when he talks about acquiring new territory for the US, or using military force in Mexico, he is serious.

…he is clearly laying the groundwork for, and removing barriers to an aggressive expansionistic policy over the next two years. What comes next is likely to be a mix of four strategies: Lebensraum, Anschluss, the hybrid Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and “Wag the Dog” (but with a distinctly internet age twist). The following is a brief discussion of what each of these four operations would look like.

The rest of the analysis lays out four goals that trump has already floated: a major military incursion into Mexico on the pretext of curtailing the flow of drugs into the US, as well as stopping the flow of migrants from Central and South America; the takeover of the Panama Canal either through coercion or outright military means; the annexation of Greenland either by purchase or military means; and finally the annexation of Canada either by “persuasion” or a military incursion.

Then the article lays out how each of these four goals could be accomplished – the threats, the cyber disinformation attacks (which would create chaos in each jurisdiction), the showcasing of “Quislings” who are solidly behind the idea of annexation and stand before the world proclaiming how much better off the subjugated citizens would be and their desire to be subsumed by the US. And finally the military actions if the “voluntary” tactics don’t work.

By the time we get here, Trump would have already taken back the Panama Canal and found a way to annex Greenland. Trump has long set his sights on making Canada a part of the US. The Republican Party would prefer it to be a territory, with no say in the US government. “The Canadians, they are going to elect two Democrat senators; we don’t want that. Territory status isn’t too bad,” according to Representative Byron Donalds.

Canadian support for being a part of the US runs around 20% at best, and triggered increased feelings of nationalism in the other 78%. Most Canadian leaders (outside of Alberta) are taking a “F*** You” attitude towards Trump’s threats of tariffs. Politicians there are engaged in competitive outbidding to see who can be the most hostile to Trump, his tariffs, and attempts to make the Canada part of the US. Only Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has shown receptiveness to treating the Trump administration, and its punitive tariffs, with kid gloves.

If Trump has successfully acquired the Panama Canal and Greenland via some combination of threats, coercion, or military force, his eye will turn to bringing Canada into the fold. By this time, the US has discarded NATO, Congress has been cowed, the military brass tamed and staffed with yes men. He believes that he is coming from a position of military strength: Canada and NATO cannot possibly hope to stop a US invasion.

Sounds crazy, right? But it’s not unimaginable given the shameful display of “power” that happened in the Oval Office yesterday (Mar 1 2025), the attempted humiliation of President Zelenskyy in front of a televised international audience. We got to see “the real” trump and vance on display!

At this point, if Canada has failed to give in to demands and economic blackmail, they and NATO will be given an ultimatum presented as a fait accompli: you will let US troops in. You cannot stop us by conventional means. The three options to NATO at this point are to allow us to annex Canada, fight a conventional war they cannot hope to win, or to use nuclear weapons against the United States and engage in mutually assured destruction. At the same time, the public in NATO countries will have been subjected to a barrage of disinformation for months, and support for a futile (and bloody) conventional war or a nuclear exchange will be low.

This will likely be the thought process of the Trump administration if they have made it this far. The problem with this thinking is that like most historical US leaders, they’re not prepared to deal with an insurgency. And Canada is no exception.

Imagine a country with the population and GDP of California, with a land area larger than the United States, having no say in its own governance. Now imagine it has been invaded, and that getting military-style weapons from the country that invaded them is ridiculously easy. Imagine that the country doing the invading doesn’t have the troops or the resources to lock things down adequately.

On top of that, unlike Iraq, there is a clear and mostly coherent sense of nationalism in Canada (they’re still very proud of burning the White House down in the War of 1812.) There’s also the matter of people who would come from other countries, including the US, to participate in an insurgency in Canada.

Russia assured their people in 2022 that Ukrainians were just like them and wanted to re-join the old Soviet Empire. It didn’t work out like that. If anything, Canadians are less enthusiastic about being a part of the US than Ukrainians were about being part of Russia. It’s hard to see this turning out well for the US in the long run.

My immediate reaction – Fantasyland! But I have a niggling feeling that these scenarios are not impossible. My anger at trump and his cat-and-mouse nonsense over “tariffs” has grown because I can sense what’s described in this Substack piece becoming a reality. I’m not fear-mongering here. I’m just trying to increase awareness of the bigger agenda that for the moment is obscured by the tariffs. The tariffs are the opening salvo in trump’s game. What I don’t think he understands is the extent the tariffs themselves will be detrimental to the US economy. Nor has he figured in the impact individual Canadian’s boycotting US goods can have overall.

We need to be serious in our efforts to buy Canadian, to work hard at buying local, to refuse to spend our $$$ with US companies as much as we can to make the lives of Americans, who are also pawns in this game, as difficult as possible. Our best hope for side-stepping an impending onslaught is for the American people to fight back themselves. For them (especially Republican supporters of trump) to become so angry they take action to curtail his (and musk’s) power. Our best allies are those disaffected American’s who wrench back control for themselves.

In the meantime, there are difficult days and weeks and months ahead. We can overcome dismay and despair by reaching out to one another, by supporting one another, and by taking those small personal actions that collectively can have an impact. Stand strong!