Iran War

A synopsis of where we are today

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This Globe and Mail article which just arrived in my inbox gives a reasonable synopsis of where trump stands in the midst of all the chaos he’s created.

Iran has a plan:

The strategic aim is higher oil prices and economic pain, which it hopes will push everyone from American allies to American voters to demand that the Trump administration back down. 

The gas pump is the global economy’s Achilles heel, and Mr. Trump’s.

trump doesn’t.

The Gulf states warned the Trump administration against starting this war, because it was obvious how Iran would respond. As predicted, it has used drones and mines – small, cheap, easy to deploy, hard to find – to target the six countries on the other side of the Persian Gulf, which collectively constitute the world’s largest oil exporter, and to prevent them from exporting oil through the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

None of us knows how this chaos is going to play out.

The current war … features remarkable feats of American military technology, but it’s difficult to see to what end. There are of course upsides in further weakening a weak Iran, but the many downsides seem to have been ignored. 

And the definition of victory? Mr. Trump said last week that the war would end when he felt it in his bones.

Iran is run by autocrats who are patient and know how to play chess. Mr. Trump is no chess grandmaster, and he is not patient. 

This war may end with Mr. Trump having to back down, leaving the global economy damaged and U.S. standing in the Middle East diminished. Or worse: Mr. Trump may call the Iranian bluff, as they have called his, by ramping up militarily – with results that could be far worse for the region, the global economy and the world.

You should be able to open the article: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/ce1154b0fb7016029672dbecd2cb6d9f9042517ccd143b074f8c8c8ffb9fc4fe/34P6EAN6PVBS7IKFHZWG76TMG4/

It’s worth the 5 minutes it will take you to read it.

Pot Calling The Kettle Black

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Came across this the other day (https://substack.com/@canadianreturnee/note/c-225898094?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=cgren).

Sums it up extremely well – there are no “good” guys waging this war. The hatred, the misogyny, the incompetence, the arrogance, the corruption – there’s no side to choose – both are equally dreadful.

If anything, in my world, trump scores higher on all these (and many other) criteria I could add to the list.

I find myself in the bizarre situation of actually offering a small, private fist-pump (“yes”) when Iran manages to hit another US installation, when they decide to let Chinese and a few other country’s ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz as a way of thumbing their nose at trump.

Just surviving is winning for the Iranians.

There is NO WINNING in this conflict for trump.

trump may declare he’s won, but the fact that Iran still stands makes a lie out of his claims. In the end Iran will survive – likely badly damaged, but standing, nevertheless. In the end, Iran will rebuild – maybe not quite the Iran from before the bombing, but their nation will continue to exist and it will continue to oppose the US and Israel. trump has made that a certainty.

I find myself saying out loud to non-US NATO members – it’s trump’s mess, let him clean it up. He didn’t want “help” – now is not the time to enter the war, and certainly not on trump’s side!

God only knows how this mess ends. Who can be a reliable broker between these two crazy regimes? If all there is on offer are “trump’s terms” – this war will go on for much longer than trump can imagine!

And now is not the time to forget Ukraine! NATO (without the US) has to keep supporting Ukraine – we all need to help the Ukrainians survive! https://u24.gov.ua

It makes me furious!

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These facts suggest two interpretive frameworks: a foreign war as a mechanism to destroy democracy at home; and a foreign war as an element of personal corruption by the president of the United States. [Timothy Snyder, Feb 28 2026]

I’d say both are at play!

We shall see how Trump’s misguided idea that engaging in conflict can benefit him will play out, and as a mostly captured U.S. media focuses fully on the war he wanted, let’s think about all the things they are not paying attention to: Trump’s overwhelming presence in the Epstein files, the tanking U.S. economy, his plan to “fix” our elections, and his myriad corrupt deals. [Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Feb 28 2026]

[Heather cox Richardson offers a very clear synopsis of why this “war”: https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/february-28-2026?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer]

And then there’s Carney’s reply:

Prime Minister Mark Carney backed US air strikes on Iran, saying Tehran is the main source of instability in the Middle East and must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. [secure.campaigner.com/c…]

This is one of those quagmire situations – the Iranian regime has been an international threat since 1979 or so. So, yes, I might want to see its power diminished and maybe support the regime’s downfall.

But that isn’t going to happen by the US and Israel attacking the Iranian civilian population! And this attack by the US/Israel is so obviously duplicitous for a host of reasons that have nothing to do with regime change.

So when the PM of Canada “backs US air strikes on Iran” – it enrages me! Better he should keep his mouth shut than stand up for this outrage being perpetrated by the US/Israel!

Carney’s motivation is also a misdirection – he’s siding with the US here because he hopes it will soften trump’s trade stance against Canada (negotiations for CUSMA are starting soon) – that’s pie in the sky thinking. I don’t believe CUSMA can be reworked this time around, not because the negotiators aren’t capable, but because trump won’t accept anything other than surrender and Canada is going to have to walk away.

According to Charlie Angus (Mar 1 2026):

Perhaps the thinking in Ottawa is that by becoming mired in a Middle East war, Trump will be distracted from his obsession with breaking our nation.

Playing nice with crocodiles in the hope that they will be nice to us never ends well.

I reacted yesterday [Feb 28 2026]:

Carney’s statement makes me furious!

“Canada’s position remains clear: the Islamic Republic of Iran is the principal source of instability and terror throughout the Middle East, has one of the world’s worst human rights records, and must never be allowed to obtain or develop nuclear weapons,” the Prime Minister said.

“Canada supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security,” he said.

Except this isn’t what trump is up to – he desperately needs a distraction from the Epstein files which are proving more than personally dangerous; he needs a distraction from mounting opposition to the impact of tariffs and health care costs escalation, he needs to protect the patronage he’s receiving from the Arab states (“enemies” of Iran).

None of this is about stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They’re all playing games! For Carney to be the first (and so far, the only as far as I can tell from what I’ve seen in the “news”) head of state to lick-ass raises my blood pressure into unsafe territory. 

He didn’t need to do it. He shouldn’t have done it!